Neal's Blog

Every year in December I write to all my friends and past clients to give them my predictions about Real Estate coming into a New Year. I usually include things about interest rates, new construction, business moving into Santa Clarita and other issues that affect value. More than anything else though people want to know if the value of their home will go up or down. Sometimes it is pretty easy to predict, lately it has been incredibly hard. Lets start with the basics and then get into an

A few months ago I suggested that price stability would be the key to solving a lot of the Real Estate problems that we face. I also said that foreclosures and short sales were the single biggest reason why prices have fallen so much-no big stretch there. I have also pointed out that currently the number of foreclosures is actually only a third of what it was a year ago, with the supposed "wave of foreclosures" never occuring, and according to many experts unlikely to ever occur. Our inventory

About 18 months ago I wrote about how an avalanche of short sales had come on the market, frustrating sellers, buyers and lenders attempting to process them. My message at the time was--basically--they take forever, they are rarely successful and lenders don't seem to know what to do with them or how to answer homeowners questions about tax implications, etc. I summarized for buyers: "foreclosures good, short sales bad". For sellers I advised consulting your tax and legal professional, I'll try

It sure must be difficult to be a homeowner in Santa Clarita these days and understand what is happening with prices. In the last 2 weeks I have seen feature stories in the LA Times with topics about Real Estate that are all over the map. Sales are way up over last year but median prices down. Unemployment and economic uncertainty are going to lead to further foreclosures and price declines, yet hundreds of thousands of loan modifications are now happening and foreclosure inventory is

Virtually everybody that follows the Real Estate Industry--especially in California--has been talking about the next wave of foreclosures that is supposed to hit and drive prices down. Even many of the buyers and sellers that I talk to have heard rumors or pieces of information about "moratoriums lifted" and "loan resets" and all kinds of things that make them want to wait if they are a buyer and sell before they hit if they are a seller. The point is that everyone knows that large amounts of

A large part of my time is spent meeting with and advising sellers. It is advice that varies from area to area and especially from the very busy lower price points to the very slow higher price ranges. It truly is 2 completely different markets. Understanding the differences and tracking the numbers is crucial. An agent really can't accurately advise a seller without fully understanding the dynamics of what is selling and what is not.   What every seller wants to know is "how much and how long?"

I suggested in my "Predictions for 2009" that prices would be directly affected by new foreclosures coming to market. For the past 4 years, areas that had lots of foreclosures dropped as much as 50, whereas areas that had lower rates of default  lost less than 10. It was my expectation that, based on continued high default rates, prices would be soft and in many areas continue to decline because of foreclosure competition driving prices down. Surprisingly, the amount of foreclosures coming to

About one year ago I wrote a blog that I asked every buyer that we worked with to read. It was designed to let them know--in no uncertain terms--all the problems for a buyer pursuing a short sale. Essentially I wanted them to understand the difference between a foreclosure and a short sale, with the message being foreclosure "good", short sale "bad". Foreclosure "good" in the sense that it had one owner (a bank), one decision maker, was vacant, the price was real, and you could get an answer in

Lets face it, in the 18 years that I have been "reading" the market and reporting to my clients and friends what to expect, I was never further off than in 2008. You can look it up-I felt prices would fall modestly in the most popular areas and up to 20 in the areas hardest hit by foreclosures. The 20 part was close. Newer areas with high foreclosure rates dropped 22-29 in 2008. These are areas like Plum Canyon, Tesoro, Canyon Gate, Creekside Valencia, Stetson Ranch and Fair Oaks Ranch that sold

The headlines about the 700 billion dollar bailout plan were displayed dramatically on the front cover of almost every major news outlet in the country only a few weeks ago; history in the making. The largest governmental intervention in the economy since the depression. But soon the pervasive media focus shifted from that to the coming election and poll frauds, and it left many of us scratching our heads wondering what, exactly, they were going to do with all that money and how it would effect

In the 18 years I have sold Real estate, it's not much of a stretch to say that the last 45 days have been the most unbelievable I have ever seen. It gets to the point that no matter how incredible the news-Wamu and Wachovia gone, Lehman done, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, the market up 600, down 900...we keep waiting for another shoe to drop.  I have always considered it my job to report to people what is happening with home prices. Often, I examine areas that affect pricing-loans,

As we enter the traditionally "slower" part of the year, there is an interesting mix of changes in the market that are important to point out as we try to figure just how long-and how deep-the price declines in our valley will be.  No one can predict the future, but there is enough information that I think it's clear that the worst is behind us -how much lower can we go anyway?.  Still,  for most of Santa Clarita we aren't at bottom yet.  To jump ahead, I will explain why price softness and

A few months back I wrote at length about "Short Sales" versus "Foreclosures" with the basic idea for buyers being "Short Sales" BAD and Foreclosures GOOD. Meaning with foreclosures we knew who the decision maker/seller was, could expect an answer to an offer within a few days, have an escrow of 45 days or less,  and generally expect that the condition of the property wouldn't deteriorate much before closing. None of that can be assumed with "Short Sales". While "Short Sales" are still an

It is fascinating to talk to buyers and sellers these days. Unlike 18 months ago, sellers now universally acknowledge "it's a bad time to sell". Virtually every prospective seller  I speak to me seems to want to share this, sometimes followed by "we should have sold 2 years ago". Ok, fair enough, though technically our market has been declining since May 2005, now over THREE years ago. The point is most sellers realize homes take much longer to sell, prices are down etc .   Buyers

Almost everyone knows the name "Angelo Mozilo"-he's the former CEO of Countrywide and he's been in the news a lot in the last few years, mostly with negative connotations. This morning I  had the opportunity to meet and listen to Andrew Gissinger. It's likely you haven't heard his name much, but I think you might in the future, and if you do I suspect it will  be with good connotations. Andrew (he goes by "Drew"), is the new Executive Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer (COO) at