A few months ago I suggested that price stability would be the key to solving a lot of the Real Estate problems that we face. I also said that foreclosures and short sales were the single biggest reason why prices have fallen so much-no big stretch there. I have also pointed out that currently the number of foreclosures is actually only a third of what it was a year ago, with the supposed "wave of foreclosures" never occuring, and according to many experts unlikely to ever occur. Our inventory in Santa Clarita today is less than 480 homes-the lowest it has ever been in my 19 years of selling real estate. Prices SHOULD be going up, but aren't unless the property is under $450,000, and only then in specific situations. Now, let's be really honest with each other. EVERYONE wants to know when prices will stabilize and go up and EVERYONE wants to be right and say "I told you so". It's human nature and a lot of money is potentially at stake-for buyers, sellers and lenders.
Real Estate is supply and demand and understanding it and predicting future trends shouldn't be terribly difficult. Yet, every week I get experts predicting the exact opposite expectation for supply based on the same information. One tells me there is really no hidden "shadow inventory" of foreclosures that will drive down prices, followed by graphs and charts from the top analysts in the contry showing me over one million homes in default that will come on the market in the next 2 years, explaining why there is. I have gone to more conferences in the last 18 months than I have in the last 18 years to really try to help everyone from my client that just wants a simple explanation to my friends that eat this stuff up understand and prepare for what will likely happen. And for the past 15 years I have written and end of the year prediction for what will happen in the New Year. But not this year. This year I will share with you the commitment that I have decided to make for anyone that wants my assistance in the 3 areas that i believe clearly will help solve the problem of eroding prices and people losing their homes-modifying loans, reducing property taxes and helping with short sales when they are upside down in the property. First though are ten important things to know about Real estate as we enter 2010. What you need to know and how you might be able to help.
1. "Shadow Inventory".